A Simulation Model of Escapable and Non-Escapable Areas from Which Pregnant Women Can Reach Tsunami Evacuation Buildings: The Case in 110 Elementary School Districts in Nagoya City, Aichi, Japan

Objective: The objective of this study was to establish a method for evaluating the possibility of pregnant women evacuating to tsunami evacuation buildings in coastal areas affected by tsunami. Methods: We used data published by the Japanese government and a general-purpose geographic information system to develop a simulation method for evaluating the possibility of evacuation. The data included the number of pregnant women in each elementary school district, tsunami inundation forecast maps, location information of tsunami evacuation buildings, and the number of ordinary buildings. We used our method to conduct a tsunami evacuation possibility simulation for pregnant women in each elementary school district in 7 wards of Nagoya, Japan. Results: Dense population areas at low elevations are high-risk areas from which many pregnant women may not be able to evacuate. Districts with evenly distributed tsunami evacuation buildings tend to have a lower risk. Conclusions: The proposed simulation method was able to determine the risk in elementary school districts in densely populated low-lying areas. However, it is suggested that the risk tends to be estimated higher in school districts where there are differences in elevation and the building distribution is not uniform.