Analysis of urban growth and estimating population density using satellite images of nighttime lights and land-use and population data

We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion in Japan from 1990 to 2006 by using gridded land-use data, population census data, and satellite images of nighttime lights. First, we mapped Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime lights and land-use data onto the 1 km² grid cell system of Japan to determine the proportional areas of DMSP and urban land use within each grid cell. Then, we investigated the relationships among population density, DMSP, and urban area. The urban/built-up area was strongly positively correlated with population density, and rapid expansion of the urban/built-up area around megacities was associated with population increases. In contrast, population density dropped steeply in rural areas and in small towns. Statistical analysis showed that correlation coefficients between population density and DMSP increased as the DMSP nighttime lights brightness value increased. We next estimated population density in the Hokkaido region using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. Numerical evaluation of the results showed that the combination of land-use data and DMSP could be used to predict the population density. Finally, we compared OLS and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for Sapporo city, Hokkaido. Compared with the OLS, the GWR can improve predictions of population density.