Derivation and validation of the J-CTO extension score for pre-procedural prediction of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in patients with chronic total occlusions

Soichiro Ebisawa, Shun Kohsaka, Toshiya Muramatsu, Yoshifumi Kashima, Atsunori Okamura, Masahisa Yamane, Masami Sakurada, Shunsuke Matsuno, Mikihiro Kijima, Maoto Habara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We developed a prediction model of long-term risk after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for coronary chronic total occlusion (CTO) based on pre-procedural clinical information. A total of 4,139 eligible patients, who underwent CTO-PCI at 52 Japanese centers were included. Specifically, 1,909 patients with 1-year data were randomly divided into the derivation (n = 1,273) and validation (n = 636) groups. Major adverse cardiac and cardiovascular event (MACCE) was the primary endpoint, including death, stroke, revascularization, and non-fatal myocardial infarction. We assessed the performance of our model using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and assigned a simplified point-scoring system. One-hundred-thirty-eight (10.8%) patients experienced MACCE in the derivation cohort with hemodialysis (HD: odds ratio [OR] = 2.55), left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEF) <35% (OR = 2.23), in-stent occlusions (ISO: OR = 2.27), and diabetes mellitus (DM: OR = 1.72). The AUC of the derivation model was 0.650. The model’s performance was similar in the validation cohort (AUC, 0.610). When assigned a point for each associated factor (HD = 3, LVEF <35%, ISO = 2, and DM = 1 point), the average predicted versus the observed MACCE probability using the Japan-CTO extension score for the low, moderate, high, and very high risk groups was 8.1% vs. 7.3%, 16.9% vs. 15.9%, 22.0% vs. 26.1%, and 56.2% vs. 44.4%, respectively. This novel risk model may allow for the estimation of long-term risk and be useful in disseminating appropriate revascularization procedures.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0238640
JournalPloS one
Volume15
Issue number9 September
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020 Sep

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • General

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