Development and validation of risk models for mortality and morbidity in 12 major pediatric surgical procedures: A study from the National Clinical Database-Pediatric of Japan

Keita Terui, Norimichi Hirahara, Hisateru Tachimori, Naohiro Kato, Jun Fujishiro, Eiichiro Watanabe, Hirofumi Tomita, Tatsuya Okamoto, Michimasa Fujiogi, Shinya Okamoto, Takeo Yonekura, Hiroaki Miyata, Noriaki Usui

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Purpose: To establish and validate risk models of mortality and morbidity associated with 12 major pediatric surgical procedures using the National Clinical Database-Pediatric (NCD-P) data. Methods: We used the NCD-P data for the development and validation datasets. By using multivariate logistic regression to analyze the development dataset, we created a prediction model for 30-day mortality and morbidity in 12 major pediatric surgical procedures, including tracheoplasty, pneumonectomy, fundoplication, total/subtotal excision of malignant tumor, and surgeries for Hirschsprung disease, anorectal malformation, biliary atresia, choledocal cyst, midgut volvulus, funnel chest, gastrointestinal perforation, and intestinal obstruction. We selected variables that were almost identical to those used in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric (NSQIP-P). The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and composite morbidity. We assessed the obtained models using the C-indices of the development and validation datasets. Results: Overall, 10 and 21 variables were identified for mortality and morbidity, respectively. C-indices of mortality were 0.940 and 0.924 in the development and validation datasets, respectively. C-indices of morbidity were 0.832 and 0.830 in the development and validation datasets, respectively. Conclusions: Based on the NCD-P data, we developed satisfactory risk models for mortality and morbidity prediction in major pediatric surgeries. Level of evidence: Level I (Prognosis Study).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2064-2070
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Pediatric Surgery
Volume55
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020 Oct

Keywords

  • Health care evaluation mechanisms
  • Intraoperative Complications
  • Morbidity
  • Mortality
  • Postoperative complications
  • Surgical procedures

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Pediatrics, Perinatology, and Child Health

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