Development of project outcome prediction system for an IT vendor

Tomoyuki Kawamura, Kenichi Takano

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Researchers have found that approximately 70% of information systems development projects in Japan have failed, thus increasing the demand for solutions that will raise expected project success rates. It is said that to improve success rates, it is essential that risk management should be conducted at an early stage. Although risk management is an important process that a project focuses on, it is difficult to mitigate the influence of all the risks through only the project. Therefore, it is noted that support should be provided by the organization to which the projects belong. The study aims to identify projects that an organization should support preferentially by predicting a project outcome that utilizes the assessment results of the project risks at an early stage. The risks of 88 projects of a Japanese IT vendor were assessed using a risk assessment sheet, and a project outcome prediction model was developed by utilizing the results of the assessment. As a consequence, a model with 73.9% predictive accuracy was obtained. It is thought that the system, including the risk assessment sheet and the project outcome prediction model, will contribute to identify projects that an organization should support preferentially.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 22nd Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2015
EditorsJing Sun, Y. Raghu Reddy, Arun Bahulkar, Anjaneyulu Pasala
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Pages338-345
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781467396448
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 May 9
Event22nd Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2015 - New Delhi, India
Duration: 2015 Dec 12015 Dec 4

Publication series

NameProceedings - Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC
Volume2016-May
ISSN (Print)1530-1362

Other

Other22nd Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2015
CountryIndia
CityNew Delhi
Period15/12/115/12/4

Keywords

  • Information systems
  • Logistic regression analysis
  • Project outcome prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software

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  • Cite this

    Kawamura, T., & Takano, K. (2016). Development of project outcome prediction system for an IT vendor. In J. Sun, Y. R. Reddy, A. Bahulkar, & A. Pasala (Eds.), Proceedings - 22nd Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2015 (pp. 338-345). [7467319] (Proceedings - Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC; Vol. 2016-May). IEEE Computer Society. https://doi.org/10.1109/APSEC.2015.42