Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization?-A Panel Data Approach*

Michael Artis, Toshihiro Okubo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper we re-estimate the correlation between trade and business cycle synchronization. Different from other previous studies, we use long-run GDP and trade data and use the GDP cross-correlation index à la Cerqueira and Martins (Economics Letters, Vol. 102 (2009), pp. 106-108) rather than overtime cross-correlations. We find a positive impact of trade on business cycle synchronization particularly in the current wave of globalization, although the interwar period sees negative impacts. The current economic integration and currency unions also positively affect business cycle synchronization.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)318-332
Number of pages15
JournalManchester School
Volume79
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Mar
Externally publishedYes

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International trade
Business cycle synchronization
Panel data
Cross-correlation
Economics
Economic integration
Globalization
Overtime
Interwar period
Currency union

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

Does International Trade Really Lead To Business Cycle Synchronization?-A Panel Data Approach*. / Artis, Michael; Okubo, Toshihiro.

In: Manchester School, Vol. 79, No. 2, 03.2011, p. 318-332.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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