TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation
AU - Urata, Kengo
AU - Inoue, Masaki
AU - Murayama, Dai
AU - Adachi, Shuichi
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Copyright:
Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2016/10/3
Y1 - 2016/10/3
N2 - We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.
AB - We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.
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U2 - 10.1088/1742-6596/744/1/012176
DO - 10.1088/1742-6596/744/1/012176
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:84994102662
VL - 744
JO - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
JF - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
SN - 1742-6588
IS - 1
M1 - 012176
T2 - 13th International Conference on Motion and Vibration Control, MOVIC 2016 and the 12th International Conference on Recent Advances in Structural Dynamics, RASD 2016
Y2 - 4 July 2016 through 6 July 2016
ER -