Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Anscombe and Aumann's Model

Toru Hokari; Masayuki Yao

doi:10.1142/S0218488516500203

Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Anscombe and Aumann's Model

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

In this note, we propose an alternative version of Anscombe and Aumann's Subjective Expected Utilities (SEU) representation theorem. In Anscombe and Aumann's model, a randomizing device with objective probabilities is available. As pointed out by Sarin and Wakker, when such a randomizing device is available, there is a natural and direct method to elicit subjective probabilities. Anscombe and Aumann did not use this method, but employed an indirect way to derive subjective probabilities. We investigate what happens if we use this direct method to elicit subjective probabilities in Anscombe and Aumann's model.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	405-410
Number of pages	6
Journal	International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowlege-Based Systems
Volume	24
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218488516500203
Publication status	Published - 2016 Jun 1

Keywords

Anscombe-Aumann's model
Subjective probability
expected utility
representation theorem

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Software
Artificial Intelligence
Information Systems
Control and Systems Engineering

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10.1142/S0218488516500203

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Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Anscombe and Aumann's Model

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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