Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?

Ippei Fujiwara; Hibiki Ichiue; Yoshiyuki Nakazono; Yosuke Shigemi

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2012.12.037

Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?

Ippei Fujiwara, Hibiki Ichiue, Yoshiyuki Nakazono, Yosuke Shigemi

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper evaluates professional forecasters' behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts. We find that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, and (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market, but jumpy in the bond market. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	526-530
Number of pages	5
Journal	Economics Letters
Volume	118
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.12.037
Publication status	Published - 2013 Mar
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Anchoring
Forecast revisions
Over-reaction
Survey forecasts
Under-reaction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Finance
Economics and Econometrics

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10.1016/j.econlet.2012.12.037

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title = "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?",

abstract = "This paper evaluates professional forecasters' behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts. We find that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, and (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market, but jumpy in the bond market. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.",

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AU - Nakazono, Yoshiyuki

AU - Shigemi, Yosuke

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AB - This paper evaluates professional forecasters' behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts. We find that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, and (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market, but jumpy in the bond market. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.

KW - Anchoring

KW - Forecast revisions

KW - Over-reaction

KW - Survey forecasts

KW - Under-reaction

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Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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