Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?

Ippei Fujiwara, Hibiki Ichiue, Yoshiyuki Nakazono, Yosuke Shigemi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper evaluates professional forecasters' behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts. We find that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, and (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market, but jumpy in the bond market. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)526-530
Number of pages5
JournalEconomics Letters
Volume118
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Mar 1

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Keywords

  • Anchoring
  • Forecast revisions
  • Over-reaction
  • Survey forecasts
  • Under-reaction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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