Forecast of CO2 Emissions from Construction and Operation of Buildings in Japan Up to 2050

Toshiharu Ikaga, Shuzo Murakami, Shinsuke Kato, Yasuyuki Shiraishi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)


It is estimated that a third of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Japan are created from construction and operation of buildings, and the construction industry is largely greatly responsible for this. Based on future population projections, a building floor area equivalent to that of Europe, the floor area of buildings already started, and an input and output analysis, a forecast of buildings-related CO2 emissions has been made up to 2050. If the current situation continues, CO2 emissions for the period 2008–2012 will rise by 15% compared to 1990 levels. On the other hand, if energy conservation measures are taken along with steps to prolong the life of buildings, reducing CO2 emissions by 30% in new construction work and by 15% in renovation work, and if the unit CO2 emission from electricity is reduced by 20% compared to 1990, CO2 emissions could be reduced by 6% over the period 2008–2012 and by 40% by 2050. We also examined the problems faced by the construction industry, making estimates classified by steps taken by the construction industry, steps taken by the power industry, and the year in which counter-measures are launched.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)149-156
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2002
Externally publishedYes


  • Greenhouse gases
  • Kyoto Protocol
  • Life cycle assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Architecture
  • Cultural Studies
  • Building and Construction
  • Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)


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