Indeterminacy and Forecastability

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium indeterminacy in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We first analytically show that a model under indeterminacy exhibits richer dynamics that can improve forecastability. Then, using a sticky-price DSGE model, we numerically demonstrate that indeterminacy arising from passive monetary policy generates persistent dynamics that lead to superior forecastability. We also point out the possibility that forecastability under indeterminacy deteriorates when the degree of uncertainty about sunspot fluctuations is large.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)243-251
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Money, Credit and Banking
Volume46
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Fingerprint

Indeterminacy
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
Sunspots
Fluctuations
Sticky prices
Price dynamics
Great moderation
Indeterminacy of equilibrium
Monetary policy
Uncertainty

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Indeterminacy
  • Monetary policy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Accounting
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

Indeterminacy and Forecastability. / Fujiwara, Ippei; Hirose, Yasuo.

In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 46, No. 1, 2014, p. 243-251.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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