Natural hazard information and migration across cities: evidence from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

Michio Naoi, Keiichi Sato, Yozo Tanaka, Hiroaki Matsuura, Shingo Nagamatsu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the 2012 revisions to the damage predictions of an anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake on subsequent inter-municipality migration in Japan’s coastal areas. We find that an increase in predicted tsunami height—rather than anticipated seismic movements—after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. While the reducing effect of tsunami predictions on in-migration persisted throughout the study period, the effect on out-migration was only temporary. Moreover, working-age people are more likely to respond to tsunami risk and avoid moving to municipalities with a high tsunami risk after the revisions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)452-479
Number of pages28
JournalPopulation and Environment
Volume41
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020 Jun 1

Keywords

  • Damage predictions
  • Earthquake
  • Hazard information
  • Migration
  • Tsunami

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Demography
  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

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