Abstract
Background: Although some predictive factors of long-term survival after a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer have been reported, only few studies have predicted long-term outcomes based on preoperative parameters. We aimed to evaluate the reliability of perioperative risk calculator for predicting overall survival (OS) after distal gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer. Methods: Overall, 337 patients (225 males, 112 females) who had undergone a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer at the Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between January 2009 and December 2013 were enrolled in this study. We investigated the reliability of a risk calculator for the prediction of OS. Results: In multivariate analysis, the risk models for operative mortality and 30-day mortality were identified as predictors of death. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis indicated that the estimated area under the curve (AUC) value of the risk model for operative mortality was > 0.870 during the first postoperative 3 years. We set optimal cutoff values of the risk model operative mortality for OS using the Cutoff Finder online tool. The cutoff values of 4.117% were significant risk factors of death. Similar results were observed in the external validation set. Conclusions: We elucidated the associations among risk calculator values and OS rates of patients with gastric cancer. Time-dependent ROC curve analysis suggested that the AUC value of the risk model for operative mortality was high, indicating that this risk calculator would be useful for not only short-term outcomes, but also long-term outcomes.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 624-631 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Gastric Cancer |
Volume | 22 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2019 May 1 |
Keywords
- Gastrectomy
- Prognosis
- Risk factors
- Stomach neoplasms
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Oncology
- Gastroenterology
- Cancer Research