Abstract
Background: Although some predictive factors of long-term survival after a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer have been reported, only few studies have predicted long-term outcomes based on preoperative parameters. We aimed to evaluate the reliability of perioperative risk calculator for predicting overall survival (OS) after distal gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer. Methods: Overall, 337 patients (225 males, 112 females) who had undergone a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer at the Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between January 2009 and December 2013 were enrolled in this study. We investigated the reliability of a risk calculator for the prediction of OS. Results: In multivariate analysis, the risk models for operative mortality and 30-day mortality were identified as predictors of death. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis indicated that the estimated area under the curve (AUC) value of the risk model for operative mortality was > 0.870 during the first postoperative 3 years. We set optimal cutoff values of the risk model operative mortality for OS using the Cutoff Finder online tool. The cutoff values of 4.117% were significant risk factors of death. Similar results were observed in the external validation set. Conclusions: We elucidated the associations among risk calculator values and OS rates of patients with gastric cancer. Time-dependent ROC curve analysis suggested that the AUC value of the risk model for operative mortality was high, indicating that this risk calculator would be useful for not only short-term outcomes, but also long-term outcomes.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal | Gastric Cancer |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Accepted/In press - 2018 Jan 1 |
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Keywords
- Gastrectomy
- Prognosis
- Risk factors
- Stomach neoplasms
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Oncology
- Gastroenterology
- Cancer Research
Cite this
Perioperative risk calculator for distal gastrectomy predicts overall survival in patients with gastric cancer. / Takeuchi, Masashi; Kawakubo, Hirofumi; Mayanagi, Shuhei; Suzuki, Yoshiyuki; Okabayashi, Koji; Yamashita, Toshiki; Kamiya, Satoshi; Irino, Tomoyuki; Fukuda, Kazumasa; Nakamura, Rieko; Suda, Koichi; Wada, Norihito; Takeuchi, Hiroya; Kitagawa, Yuukou.
In: Gastric Cancer, 01.01.2018.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Perioperative risk calculator for distal gastrectomy predicts overall survival in patients with gastric cancer
AU - Takeuchi, Masashi
AU - Kawakubo, Hirofumi
AU - Mayanagi, Shuhei
AU - Suzuki, Yoshiyuki
AU - Okabayashi, Koji
AU - Yamashita, Toshiki
AU - Kamiya, Satoshi
AU - Irino, Tomoyuki
AU - Fukuda, Kazumasa
AU - Nakamura, Rieko
AU - Suda, Koichi
AU - Wada, Norihito
AU - Takeuchi, Hiroya
AU - Kitagawa, Yuukou
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - Background: Although some predictive factors of long-term survival after a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer have been reported, only few studies have predicted long-term outcomes based on preoperative parameters. We aimed to evaluate the reliability of perioperative risk calculator for predicting overall survival (OS) after distal gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer. Methods: Overall, 337 patients (225 males, 112 females) who had undergone a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer at the Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between January 2009 and December 2013 were enrolled in this study. We investigated the reliability of a risk calculator for the prediction of OS. Results: In multivariate analysis, the risk models for operative mortality and 30-day mortality were identified as predictors of death. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis indicated that the estimated area under the curve (AUC) value of the risk model for operative mortality was > 0.870 during the first postoperative 3 years. We set optimal cutoff values of the risk model operative mortality for OS using the Cutoff Finder online tool. The cutoff values of 4.117% were significant risk factors of death. Similar results were observed in the external validation set. Conclusions: We elucidated the associations among risk calculator values and OS rates of patients with gastric cancer. Time-dependent ROC curve analysis suggested that the AUC value of the risk model for operative mortality was high, indicating that this risk calculator would be useful for not only short-term outcomes, but also long-term outcomes.
AB - Background: Although some predictive factors of long-term survival after a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer have been reported, only few studies have predicted long-term outcomes based on preoperative parameters. We aimed to evaluate the reliability of perioperative risk calculator for predicting overall survival (OS) after distal gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer. Methods: Overall, 337 patients (225 males, 112 females) who had undergone a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer at the Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between January 2009 and December 2013 were enrolled in this study. We investigated the reliability of a risk calculator for the prediction of OS. Results: In multivariate analysis, the risk models for operative mortality and 30-day mortality were identified as predictors of death. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis indicated that the estimated area under the curve (AUC) value of the risk model for operative mortality was > 0.870 during the first postoperative 3 years. We set optimal cutoff values of the risk model operative mortality for OS using the Cutoff Finder online tool. The cutoff values of 4.117% were significant risk factors of death. Similar results were observed in the external validation set. Conclusions: We elucidated the associations among risk calculator values and OS rates of patients with gastric cancer. Time-dependent ROC curve analysis suggested that the AUC value of the risk model for operative mortality was high, indicating that this risk calculator would be useful for not only short-term outcomes, but also long-term outcomes.
KW - Gastrectomy
KW - Prognosis
KW - Risk factors
KW - Stomach neoplasms
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85057333766&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85057333766&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10120-018-0896-9
DO - 10.1007/s10120-018-0896-9
M3 - Article
JO - Gastric Cancer
JF - Gastric Cancer
SN - 1436-3291
ER -