Perioperative risk calculator for distal gastrectomy predicts overall survival in patients with gastric cancer

Masashi Takeuchi, Hirofumi Kawakubo, Shuhei Mayanagi, Yoshiyuki Suzuki, Koji Okabayashi, Toshiki Yamashita, Satoshi Kamiya, Tomoyuki Irino, Kazumasa Fukuda, Rieko Nakamura, Koichi Suda, Norihito Wada, Hiroya Takeuchi, Yuko Kitagawa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)


Background: Although some predictive factors of long-term survival after a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer have been reported, only few studies have predicted long-term outcomes based on preoperative parameters. We aimed to evaluate the reliability of perioperative risk calculator for predicting overall survival (OS) after distal gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer. Methods: Overall, 337 patients (225 males, 112 females) who had undergone a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer at the Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between January 2009 and December 2013 were enrolled in this study. We investigated the reliability of a risk calculator for the prediction of OS. Results: In multivariate analysis, the risk models for operative mortality and 30-day mortality were identified as predictors of death. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis indicated that the estimated area under the curve (AUC) value of the risk model for operative mortality was > 0.870 during the first postoperative 3 years. We set optimal cutoff values of the risk model operative mortality for OS using the Cutoff Finder online tool. The cutoff values of 4.117% were significant risk factors of death. Similar results were observed in the external validation set. Conclusions: We elucidated the associations among risk calculator values and OS rates of patients with gastric cancer. Time-dependent ROC curve analysis suggested that the AUC value of the risk model for operative mortality was high, indicating that this risk calculator would be useful for not only short-term outcomes, but also long-term outcomes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)624-631
Number of pages8
JournalGastric Cancer
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2019 May 1



  • Gastrectomy
  • Prognosis
  • Risk factors
  • Stomach neoplasms

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Gastroenterology
  • Cancer Research

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