Prognostic grading system specifically for elderly patients with brain metastases after stereotactic radiosurgery: A 2-institution study

OBJECTIVE With the aging of the population, increasing numbers of elderly patients with brain metastasis (BM) are undergoing stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Among recently reported prognostic grading indexes, only the basic score for brain metastases (BSBM) is applicable to patients 65 years or older. However, the major weakness of this system is that no BM-related factors are graded. This prompted the authors to develop a new grading system, the elderly-specific (ES)–BSBM. METHODS For this IRB-approved, retrospective cohort study, the authors used their prospectively accumulated database comprising 3267 consecutive patients undergoing Gamma Knife SRS for BMs during the 1998–2016 period at the Mito GammaHouse. Among these 3267 patients, 1789 patients ≥ 65 years of age were studied (Yamamoto series [Y-series]). Another series of 1785 patients ≥ 65 years of age in whom Serizawa and colleagues performed Gamma Knife SRS during the same period (Serizawa series [S-series]) was used for validity testing of the ES-BSBM. RESULTS Two factors were identified as strongly impacting longer survival after SRS by means of multivariable analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model with a stepwise selection procedure. These factors are the number of tumors (solitary vs multiple: HR 1.450, 95% CI 1.299–1.621; p < 0.0001) and cumulative tumor volume (≤ 15 cm³ vs > 15 cm³: HR 1.311, 95% CI 1.078–1.593; p = 0.0067). The new index is the addition of scores 0 and 1 for these 2 factors to the BSBM. The ES-BSBM system is based on categorization into 3 classes by adding these 2 scores to those of the original BSBM. Each ES-BSBM category has 2 possible scores. For the category ES-BSBM 4–5, the score is either 4 or 5; for ES-BSBM 2–3, the score is either 2 or 3; and for ES-BSBM 0–1, the score is either 0 or 1. In the Y-series, the median survival times (MSTs, months) after SRS were 17.5 (95% CI 15.4–19.3) in ES-BSBM 4–5, 6.9 (95% CI 6.4–7.4) in ES-BSBM 2–3, and 2.8 (95% CI 2.5–3.6) in ES-BSBM 0–1 (p < 0.0001). Also, in the S-series, MSTs were, respectively, 20.4 (95% CI 17.2–23.4), 7.9 (95% CI 7.4–8.5), and 3.2 (95% CI 2.8–3.6) (p < 0.0001). The ES-BSBM system was shown to be applicable to patients with all primary tumor types as well as to those 80 years or older. CONCLUSIONS The authors found that the addition of the number of tumors and cumulative tumor volume as scoring factors to the BSBM system significantly improved the prognostic value of this index. The present study is strengthened by testing the ES-BSBM in a different patient group.