Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

Peter Turchin; Thomas E. Currie; Harvey Whitehouse; Pieter François; Kevin Feeney; Daniel Mullins; Daniel Hoyer; Christina Collins; Stephanie Grohmann; Patrick Savage; Gavin Mendel-Gleason; Edward Turner; Agathe Dupeyron; Enrico Cioni; Jenny Reddish; Jill Levine; Greine Jordan; Eva Brandl; Alice Williams; Rudolf Cesaretti; Marta Krueger; Alessandro Ceccarelli; Joe Figliulo-Rosswurm; Po Ju Tuan; Peter Peregrine; Arkadiusz Marciniak; Johannes Preiser-Kapeller; Nikolay Kradin; Andrey Korotayev; Alessio Palmisano; David Baker; Julye Bidmead; Peter Bol; David Christian; Connie Cook; Alan Covey; Gary Feinman; Árni Daníel Júlíusson; Axel Kristinsson; John Miksic; Ruth Mostern; Cameron Petrie; Peter Rudiak-Gould; Barend ter Haar; Vesna Wallace; Victor Mair; Liye Xie; John Baines; Elizabeth Bridges; Joseph Manning; Bruce Lockhart; Amy Bogaard; Charles Spencer

doi:10.1073/pnas.1708800115

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

Peter Turchin, Thomas E. Currie, Harvey Whitehouse, Pieter François, Kevin Feeney, Daniel Mullins, Daniel Hoyer, Christina Collins, Stephanie Grohmann, Patrick Savage, Gavin Mendel-Gleason, Edward Turner, Agathe Dupeyron, Enrico Cioni, Jenny Reddish, Jill Levine, Greine Jordan, Eva Brandl, Alice Williams, Rudolf CesarettiMarta Krueger, Alessandro Ceccarelli, Joe Figliulo-Rosswurm, Po Ju Tuan, Peter Peregrine, Arkadiusz Marciniak, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Nikolay Kradin, Andrey Korotayev, Alessio Palmisano, David Baker, Julye Bidmead, Peter Bol, David Christian, Connie Cook, Alan Covey, Gary Feinman, Árni Daníel Júlíusson, Axel Kristinsson, John Miksic, Ruth Mostern, Cameron Petrie, Peter Rudiak-Gould, Barend ter Haar, Vesna Wallace, Victor Mair, Liye Xie, John Baines, Elizabeth Bridges, Joseph Manning, Bruce Lockhart, Amy Bogaard, Charles Spencer

Faculty of Environment and Information Studies

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

105 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as “Seshat: Global History Databank.” We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	E144-E151
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	115
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115
Publication status	Published - 2017 Jan 9

Keywords

Comparative archaeology
Comparative history
Cultural evolution
Quantitative history
Sociopolitical complexity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General

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10.1073/pnas.1708800115

Cite this

Turchin, P., Currie, T. E., Whitehouse, H., François, P., Feeney, K., Mullins, D., Hoyer, D., Collins, C., Grohmann, S., Savage, P., Mendel-Gleason, G., Turner, E., Dupeyron, A., Cioni, E., Reddish, J., Levine, J., Jordan, G., Brandl, E., Williams, A., ... Spencer, C. (2017). Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(2), E144-E151. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization. / Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E.; Whitehouse, Harvey et al.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 115, No. 2, 09.01.2017, p. E144-E151.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Turchin, P, Currie, TE, Whitehouse, H, François, P, Feeney, K, Mullins, D, Hoyer, D, Collins, C, Grohmann, S, Savage, P, Mendel-Gleason, G, Turner, E, Dupeyron, A, Cioni, E, Reddish, J, Levine, J, Jordan, G, Brandl, E, Williams, A, Cesaretti, R, Krueger, M, Ceccarelli, A, Figliulo-Rosswurm, J, Tuan, PJ, Peregrine, P, Marciniak, A, Preiser-Kapeller, J, Kradin, N, Korotayev, A, Palmisano, A, Baker, D, Bidmead, J, Bol, P, Christian, D, Cook, C, Covey, A, Feinman, G, Júlíusson, ÁD, Kristinsson, A, Miksic, J, Mostern, R, Petrie, C, Rudiak-Gould, P, ter Haar, B, Wallace, V, Mair, V, Xie, L, Baines, J, Bridges, E, Manning, J, Lockhart, B, Bogaard, A & Spencer, C 2017, 'Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 115, no. 2, pp. E144-E151. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115

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title = "Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization",

abstract = "Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as “Seshat: Global History Databank.” We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history.",

keywords = "Comparative archaeology, Comparative history, Cultural evolution, Quantitative history, Sociopolitical complexity",

author = "Peter Turchin and Currie, {Thomas E.} and Harvey Whitehouse and Pieter Fran{\c c}ois and Kevin Feeney and Daniel Mullins and Daniel Hoyer and Christina Collins and Stephanie Grohmann and Patrick Savage and Gavin Mendel-Gleason and Edward Turner and Agathe Dupeyron and Enrico Cioni and Jenny Reddish and Jill Levine and Greine Jordan and Eva Brandl and Alice Williams and Rudolf Cesaretti and Marta Krueger and Alessandro Ceccarelli and Joe Figliulo-Rosswurm and Tuan, {Po Ju} and Peter Peregrine and Arkadiusz Marciniak and Johannes Preiser-Kapeller and Nikolay Kradin and Andrey Korotayev and Alessio Palmisano and David Baker and Julye Bidmead and Peter Bol and David Christian and Connie Cook and Alan Covey and Gary Feinman and J{\'u}l{\'i}usson, {{\'A}rni Dan{\'i}el} and Axel Kristinsson and John Miksic and Ruth Mostern and Cameron Petrie and Peter Rudiak-Gould and {ter Haar}, Barend and Vesna Wallace and Victor Mair and Liye Xie and John Baines and Elizabeth Bridges and Joseph Manning and Bruce Lockhart and Amy Bogaard and Charles Spencer",

note = "Funding Information: We thank Paula and Jerry Sabloff, Santiago Giraldo, and Carol Lansing who contributed to the development of Seshat. We also acknowledge Prof. Garrett Fagan, who passed away on March 11, 2017. He was a valued contributor to the Seshat Databank project, helping at an early stage in developing a coding scheme for social complexity variables and overseeing the coding of Roman polities. This work was supported by a John Templeton Foundation Grant (to the Evolution Institute) entitled {"}Axial-Age Religions and the Z-Curve of Human Egalitarianism, {"} a Tricoastal Foundation Grant (to the Evolution Institute) entitled {"}The Deep Roots of the Modern World: The Cultural Evolution of Economic Growth and Political Stability, {"} Economic and Social Research Council Large Grant REF RES-060-25-0085 entitled {"}Ritual, Community, and Conflict, {"} an Advanced Grant from the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme Grant 694986, and Grant 644055 from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (ALIGNED; www.alignedproject. eu). T.E.C. is supported by funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement 716212). Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Paula and Jerry Sabloff, Santiago Giraldo, and Carol Lansing who contributed to the development of Seshat. We also acknowledge Prof. Garrett Fagan, who passed away on March 11, 2017. He was a valued contributor to the Seshat Databank project, helping at an early stage in developing a coding scheme for social complexity variables and overseeing the coding of Roman polities. This work was supported by a John",

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doi = "10.1073/pnas.1708800115",

language = "English",

volume = "115",

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T1 - Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

AU - Turchin, Peter

AU - Currie, Thomas E.

AU - Whitehouse, Harvey

AU - François, Pieter

AU - Feeney, Kevin

AU - Mullins, Daniel

AU - Hoyer, Daniel

AU - Collins, Christina

AU - Grohmann, Stephanie

AU - Savage, Patrick

AU - Mendel-Gleason, Gavin

AU - Turner, Edward

AU - Dupeyron, Agathe

AU - Cioni, Enrico

AU - Reddish, Jenny

AU - Levine, Jill

AU - Jordan, Greine

AU - Brandl, Eva

AU - Williams, Alice

AU - Cesaretti, Rudolf

AU - Krueger, Marta

AU - Ceccarelli, Alessandro

AU - Figliulo-Rosswurm, Joe

AU - Tuan, Po Ju

AU - Peregrine, Peter

AU - Marciniak, Arkadiusz

AU - Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes

AU - Kradin, Nikolay

AU - Korotayev, Andrey

AU - Palmisano, Alessio

AU - Baker, David

AU - Bidmead, Julye

AU - Bol, Peter

AU - Christian, David

AU - Cook, Connie

AU - Covey, Alan

AU - Feinman, Gary

AU - Júlíusson, Árni Daníel

AU - Kristinsson, Axel

AU - Miksic, John

AU - Mostern, Ruth

AU - Petrie, Cameron

AU - Rudiak-Gould, Peter

AU - ter Haar, Barend

AU - Wallace, Vesna

AU - Mair, Victor

AU - Xie, Liye

AU - Baines, John

AU - Bridges, Elizabeth

AU - Manning, Joseph

AU - Lockhart, Bruce

AU - Bogaard, Amy

AU - Spencer, Charles

N1 - Funding Information: We thank Paula and Jerry Sabloff, Santiago Giraldo, and Carol Lansing who contributed to the development of Seshat. We also acknowledge Prof. Garrett Fagan, who passed away on March 11, 2017. He was a valued contributor to the Seshat Databank project, helping at an early stage in developing a coding scheme for social complexity variables and overseeing the coding of Roman polities. This work was supported by a John Templeton Foundation Grant (to the Evolution Institute) entitled "Axial-Age Religions and the Z-Curve of Human Egalitarianism, " a Tricoastal Foundation Grant (to the Evolution Institute) entitled "The Deep Roots of the Modern World: The Cultural Evolution of Economic Growth and Political Stability, " Economic and Social Research Council Large Grant REF RES-060-25-0085 entitled "Ritual, Community, and Conflict, " an Advanced Grant from the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme Grant 694986, and Grant 644055 from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (ALIGNED; www.alignedproject. eu). T.E.C. is supported by funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement 716212). Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Paula and Jerry Sabloff, Santiago Giraldo, and Carol Lansing who contributed to the development of Seshat. We also acknowledge Prof. Garrett Fagan, who passed away on March 11, 2017. He was a valued contributor to the Seshat Databank project, helping at an early stage in developing a coding scheme for social complexity variables and overseeing the coding of Roman polities. This work was supported by a John

PY - 2017/1/9

Y1 - 2017/1/9

N2 - Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as “Seshat: Global History Databank.” We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history.

AB - Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as “Seshat: Global History Databank.” We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history.

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KW - Comparative history

KW - Cultural evolution

KW - Quantitative history

KW - Sociopolitical complexity

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Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

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