Short-term wind power prediction for wind turbine via kalman filter based on JIT modeling

Tomoki Ishikawa, Toru Namerikawa

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper addresses wind power prediction which is known to be a key technology in EMS(Energy Management Systems). In recent years, an introductory expansion of renewable energy is expected and the prediction of wind power generation is needed for taking in wind power generation. The goal of this work is to predict the amount of generation in the next day from the past actual data and the weather forecast data of wind. In this paper, 24 hours ahead power prediction method using a filtering theory is proposed for wind power generation. The prediction method is a simple algorithm, the procedure of prediction consists of two steps, the data processing and the calculation of predicted values. In the data processing, in order to get the correlative data from the database, we employ JIT(Just-In-Time) Modeling. In the calculation of predicted value, we provide the regression model for wind speed and wind power, and the unknown parameters are estimated via constrained kalman filter. Finally, the advantages of the proposed method over the conventional method are shown through simulations.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the SICE Annual Conference
Pages1126-1131
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event2013 52nd Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan, SICE 2013 - Nagoya, Japan
Duration: 2013 Sep 142013 Sep 17

Other

Other2013 52nd Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan, SICE 2013
CountryJapan
CityNagoya
Period13/9/1413/9/17

Fingerprint

Kalman filters
Wind turbines
Wind power
Power generation
Energy management systems

Keywords

  • Constrained kalman filter
  • Energy management systems(EMS)
  • Just-in-time modeling(jit modeling)
  • Short-term prediction
  • Wind power

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications

Cite this

Ishikawa, T., & Namerikawa, T. (2013). Short-term wind power prediction for wind turbine via kalman filter based on JIT modeling. In Proceedings of the SICE Annual Conference (pp. 1126-1131)

Short-term wind power prediction for wind turbine via kalman filter based on JIT modeling. / Ishikawa, Tomoki; Namerikawa, Toru.

Proceedings of the SICE Annual Conference. 2013. p. 1126-1131.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Ishikawa, T & Namerikawa, T 2013, Short-term wind power prediction for wind turbine via kalman filter based on JIT modeling. in Proceedings of the SICE Annual Conference. pp. 1126-1131, 2013 52nd Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan, SICE 2013, Nagoya, Japan, 13/9/14.
Ishikawa T, Namerikawa T. Short-term wind power prediction for wind turbine via kalman filter based on JIT modeling. In Proceedings of the SICE Annual Conference. 2013. p. 1126-1131
Ishikawa, Tomoki ; Namerikawa, Toru. / Short-term wind power prediction for wind turbine via kalman filter based on JIT modeling. Proceedings of the SICE Annual Conference. 2013. pp. 1126-1131
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