Solar Flare Prediction Using Machine Learning with Multiwavelength Observations

Naoto Nishizuka, Komei Sugiura, Yuki Kubo, Mitsue Den, Shin Ichi Watari, Mamoru Ishii

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We developed a flare prediction model based on the supervised machine learning of solar observation data for 2010-2015. We used vector magnetograms, lower chromospheric brightening, and soft-X-ray data taken by Solar Dynamics Observatory and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. We detected active regions and extracted 60 solar features such as magnetic neutral lines, current helicity, chromospheric brightening, and flare history. We fully shuffled the database and randomly divided it into two for training and testing. To predict the maximum size of flares occurring in the following 24 hours, we used three machine-learning algorithms independently: The support vector machine, the k nearest neighbors (kNN), and the extremely randomized trees. We achieved a skill score (TSS) of greater than 0.9 for kNN. Furthermore, we compared the prediction results in a more operational setting by shuffling and dividing the database with a week unit. It was found that the prediction score depends on the way the database is prepared.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)310-313
Number of pages4
JournalProceedings of the International Astronomical Union
Volume13
Issue numberS335
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Jan 1
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • image processing
  • magnetic fields
  • methods: statistical
  • Sun: flares
  • sunspots
  • techniques

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine (miscellaneous)
  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Nutrition and Dietetics
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Space and Planetary Science

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