Surgical risk model for acute diffuse peritonitis based on a Japanese nationwide database: an initial report on the surgical and 30-day mortality

Tohru Nakagoe, Hiroaki Miyata, Mitsukazu Gotoh, Takayuki Anazawa, Hideo Baba, Wataru Kimura, Naohiro Tomita, Mitsuo Shimada, Yuko Kitagawa, Kenichi Sugihara, Masaki Mori

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Purpose: Acute diffuse peritonitis (ADP) is an important surgical complication associated with high morbidity and mortality; however, the risk factors associated with a poor outcome have remained controversial. This study aimed in collecting integrated data using a web-based national database system to build a risk model for mortality after surgery for ADP. Methods: We included cases registered in the National Clinical Database in Japan. After data cleanup, 8,482 surgical cases of ADP from 1,285 hospitals treated between January 1 and December 31, 2011 were analyzed. Results: The raw 30-day and surgical mortality rates were 9.0 and 14.1 %, respectively. The odds ratios (>2.0) for 30-day mortality were as follows: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class 3, 2.69; ASA class 4, 4.28; ASA class 5, 8.65; previous percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), 2.05; previous surgery for peripheral vascular disease (PVD), 2.45 and disseminated cancer, 2.16. The odds ratios (>2.0) for surgical mortality were as follows: ASA class 3, 2.27; ASA class 4, 4.67; ASA class 5, 6.54, and disseminated cancer, 2.09. The C-indices of 30-day and surgical mortality were 0.851 and 0.852, respectively. Conclusion: This is the first report of risk stratification after surgery for ADP using a nationwide surgical database. This system could be useful to predict the outcome of surgery for ADP and for evaluations and benchmark performance studies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1233-1243
Number of pages11
JournalSurgery today
Volume45
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Oct 14
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Acute diffuse peritonitis
  • Mortality
  • Risk factor
  • Risk model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery

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