Validation of the efficacy of the prognostic factor score in the Japanese severity criteria for severe acute pancreatitis: A large multicenter study

Tsukasa Ikeura, Masayasu Horibe, Masamitsu Sanui, Mitsuhito Sasaki, Yasuyuki Kuwagata, Kenichiro Nishi, Shuji Kariya, Hirotaka Sawano, Takashi Goto, Tsuyoshi Hamada, Takuya Oda, Hideto Yasuda, Yuki Ogura, Dai Miyazaki, Kaoru Hirose, Katsuya Kitamura, Nobutaka Chiba, Tetsu Ozaki, Takahiro Yamashita, Toshitaka KoinumaTaku Oshima, Tomonori Yamamoto, Morihisa Hirota, Satoshi Yamamoto, Kyoji Oe, Tetsuya Ito, Eisuke Iwasaki, Takanori Kanai, Kazuichi Okazaki, Toshihiko Mayumi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Background: The Japanese severity criteria for acute pancreatitis (AP), which consist of a prognostic factor score and contrast-enhanced computed tomography grade, have been widely used in Japan. Objective: This large multicenter retrospective study was conducted to validate the predictive value of the prognostic factor score for mortality and complications in severe AP patients in comparison to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Methods: Data of 1159 patients diagnosed with severe AP according to the Japanese severity criteria for AP were retrospectively collected in 44 institutions. Results: The area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the prognostic factor score for predicting mortality was 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74–0.82), whereas the AUC for the APACHE II score was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76–0.83), respectively. There were no significant differences in the AUC for predicting mortality between two scoring systems. The AUCs of the prognostic factor scores for predicting the need for mechanical ventilation, the development of pancreatic infection, and severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81–0.86), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69–0.77), and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81–0.86), respectively, which were significantly greater than the AUCs for the APACHE II score; 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78–0.83) for the need for mechanical ventilation (p = 0.03), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.63–0.72) for the development of pancreatic infection (p = 0.02), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77–0.82) for severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification (p = 0.01). Conclusion: The prognostic factor score has an equivalent ability for predicting mortality compared with the APACHE II score. Regarding the ability for predicting the development of severe complications during the clinical course of AP, the prognostic factor score may be superior to the APACHE II score.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)389-397
Number of pages9
JournalUnited European Gastroenterology Journal
Volume5
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Apr 1

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Pancreatitis
Multicenter Studies
APACHE
Confidence Intervals
Area Under Curve
Mortality
Artificial Respiration
Infection
ROC Curve
Japan
Retrospective Studies
Tomography

Keywords

  • Acute pancreatitis
  • diagnosis
  • mortality
  • prognostic factor score
  • severity criteria

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Gastroenterology

Cite this

Validation of the efficacy of the prognostic factor score in the Japanese severity criteria for severe acute pancreatitis : A large multicenter study. / Ikeura, Tsukasa; Horibe, Masayasu; Sanui, Masamitsu; Sasaki, Mitsuhito; Kuwagata, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Kenichiro; Kariya, Shuji; Sawano, Hirotaka; Goto, Takashi; Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Oda, Takuya; Yasuda, Hideto; Ogura, Yuki; Miyazaki, Dai; Hirose, Kaoru; Kitamura, Katsuya; Chiba, Nobutaka; Ozaki, Tetsu; Yamashita, Takahiro; Koinuma, Toshitaka; Oshima, Taku; Yamamoto, Tomonori; Hirota, Morihisa; Yamamoto, Satoshi; Oe, Kyoji; Ito, Tetsuya; Iwasaki, Eisuke; Kanai, Takanori; Okazaki, Kazuichi; Mayumi, Toshihiko.

In: United European Gastroenterology Journal, Vol. 5, No. 3, 01.04.2017, p. 389-397.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ikeura, T, Horibe, M, Sanui, M, Sasaki, M, Kuwagata, Y, Nishi, K, Kariya, S, Sawano, H, Goto, T, Hamada, T, Oda, T, Yasuda, H, Ogura, Y, Miyazaki, D, Hirose, K, Kitamura, K, Chiba, N, Ozaki, T, Yamashita, T, Koinuma, T, Oshima, T, Yamamoto, T, Hirota, M, Yamamoto, S, Oe, K, Ito, T, Iwasaki, E, Kanai, T, Okazaki, K & Mayumi, T 2017, 'Validation of the efficacy of the prognostic factor score in the Japanese severity criteria for severe acute pancreatitis: A large multicenter study', United European Gastroenterology Journal, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 389-397. https://doi.org/10.1177/2050640616670566
Ikeura, Tsukasa ; Horibe, Masayasu ; Sanui, Masamitsu ; Sasaki, Mitsuhito ; Kuwagata, Yasuyuki ; Nishi, Kenichiro ; Kariya, Shuji ; Sawano, Hirotaka ; Goto, Takashi ; Hamada, Tsuyoshi ; Oda, Takuya ; Yasuda, Hideto ; Ogura, Yuki ; Miyazaki, Dai ; Hirose, Kaoru ; Kitamura, Katsuya ; Chiba, Nobutaka ; Ozaki, Tetsu ; Yamashita, Takahiro ; Koinuma, Toshitaka ; Oshima, Taku ; Yamamoto, Tomonori ; Hirota, Morihisa ; Yamamoto, Satoshi ; Oe, Kyoji ; Ito, Tetsuya ; Iwasaki, Eisuke ; Kanai, Takanori ; Okazaki, Kazuichi ; Mayumi, Toshihiko. / Validation of the efficacy of the prognostic factor score in the Japanese severity criteria for severe acute pancreatitis : A large multicenter study. In: United European Gastroenterology Journal. 2017 ; Vol. 5, No. 3. pp. 389-397.
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abstract = "Background: The Japanese severity criteria for acute pancreatitis (AP), which consist of a prognostic factor score and contrast-enhanced computed tomography grade, have been widely used in Japan. Objective: This large multicenter retrospective study was conducted to validate the predictive value of the prognostic factor score for mortality and complications in severe AP patients in comparison to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Methods: Data of 1159 patients diagnosed with severe AP according to the Japanese severity criteria for AP were retrospectively collected in 44 institutions. Results: The area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the prognostic factor score for predicting mortality was 0.78 (95{\%} confidence interval (CI), 0.74–0.82), whereas the AUC for the APACHE II score was 0.80 (95{\%} CI, 0.76–0.83), respectively. There were no significant differences in the AUC for predicting mortality between two scoring systems. The AUCs of the prognostic factor scores for predicting the need for mechanical ventilation, the development of pancreatic infection, and severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification were 0.84 (95{\%} CI, 0.81–0.86), 0.73 (95{\%} CI, 0.69–0.77), and 0.83 (95{\%} CI, 0.81–0.86), respectively, which were significantly greater than the AUCs for the APACHE II score; 0.81 (95{\%} CI, 0.78–0.83) for the need for mechanical ventilation (p = 0.03), 0.68 (95{\%} CI, 0.63–0.72) for the development of pancreatic infection (p = 0.02), and 0.80 (95{\%} CI, 0.77–0.82) for severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification (p = 0.01). Conclusion: The prognostic factor score has an equivalent ability for predicting mortality compared with the APACHE II score. Regarding the ability for predicting the development of severe complications during the clinical course of AP, the prognostic factor score may be superior to the APACHE II score.",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Validation of the efficacy of the prognostic factor score in the Japanese severity criteria for severe acute pancreatitis

T2 - A large multicenter study

AU - Ikeura, Tsukasa

AU - Horibe, Masayasu

AU - Sanui, Masamitsu

AU - Sasaki, Mitsuhito

AU - Kuwagata, Yasuyuki

AU - Nishi, Kenichiro

AU - Kariya, Shuji

AU - Sawano, Hirotaka

AU - Goto, Takashi

AU - Hamada, Tsuyoshi

AU - Oda, Takuya

AU - Yasuda, Hideto

AU - Ogura, Yuki

AU - Miyazaki, Dai

AU - Hirose, Kaoru

AU - Kitamura, Katsuya

AU - Chiba, Nobutaka

AU - Ozaki, Tetsu

AU - Yamashita, Takahiro

AU - Koinuma, Toshitaka

AU - Oshima, Taku

AU - Yamamoto, Tomonori

AU - Hirota, Morihisa

AU - Yamamoto, Satoshi

AU - Oe, Kyoji

AU - Ito, Tetsuya

AU - Iwasaki, Eisuke

AU - Kanai, Takanori

AU - Okazaki, Kazuichi

AU - Mayumi, Toshihiko

PY - 2017/4/1

Y1 - 2017/4/1

N2 - Background: The Japanese severity criteria for acute pancreatitis (AP), which consist of a prognostic factor score and contrast-enhanced computed tomography grade, have been widely used in Japan. Objective: This large multicenter retrospective study was conducted to validate the predictive value of the prognostic factor score for mortality and complications in severe AP patients in comparison to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Methods: Data of 1159 patients diagnosed with severe AP according to the Japanese severity criteria for AP were retrospectively collected in 44 institutions. Results: The area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the prognostic factor score for predicting mortality was 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74–0.82), whereas the AUC for the APACHE II score was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76–0.83), respectively. There were no significant differences in the AUC for predicting mortality between two scoring systems. The AUCs of the prognostic factor scores for predicting the need for mechanical ventilation, the development of pancreatic infection, and severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81–0.86), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69–0.77), and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81–0.86), respectively, which were significantly greater than the AUCs for the APACHE II score; 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78–0.83) for the need for mechanical ventilation (p = 0.03), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.63–0.72) for the development of pancreatic infection (p = 0.02), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77–0.82) for severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification (p = 0.01). Conclusion: The prognostic factor score has an equivalent ability for predicting mortality compared with the APACHE II score. Regarding the ability for predicting the development of severe complications during the clinical course of AP, the prognostic factor score may be superior to the APACHE II score.

AB - Background: The Japanese severity criteria for acute pancreatitis (AP), which consist of a prognostic factor score and contrast-enhanced computed tomography grade, have been widely used in Japan. Objective: This large multicenter retrospective study was conducted to validate the predictive value of the prognostic factor score for mortality and complications in severe AP patients in comparison to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Methods: Data of 1159 patients diagnosed with severe AP according to the Japanese severity criteria for AP were retrospectively collected in 44 institutions. Results: The area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the prognostic factor score for predicting mortality was 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74–0.82), whereas the AUC for the APACHE II score was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76–0.83), respectively. There were no significant differences in the AUC for predicting mortality between two scoring systems. The AUCs of the prognostic factor scores for predicting the need for mechanical ventilation, the development of pancreatic infection, and severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81–0.86), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69–0.77), and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81–0.86), respectively, which were significantly greater than the AUCs for the APACHE II score; 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78–0.83) for the need for mechanical ventilation (p = 0.03), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.63–0.72) for the development of pancreatic infection (p = 0.02), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77–0.82) for severe AP according to the revised Atlanta classification (p = 0.01). Conclusion: The prognostic factor score has an equivalent ability for predicting mortality compared with the APACHE II score. Regarding the ability for predicting the development of severe complications during the clinical course of AP, the prognostic factor score may be superior to the APACHE II score.

KW - Acute pancreatitis

KW - diagnosis

KW - mortality

KW - prognostic factor score

KW - severity criteria

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DO - 10.1177/2050640616670566

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