World Trading System under Stress: Scenarios for the Future

Mehmet Sait Akman, Shiro Armstrong, Uri Dadush, Anabel Gonzalez, Fukunari Kimura, Junji Nakagawa, Peter Rashish, Akihiko Tamura, Carlos A. Primo Braga

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The world trading system has been remarkably successful in many respects but is now under great strain. The causes are deep-seated and require a strategic response. The future of the system depends critically on reinvigorating the WTO and policy change in the largest trading nations. Important measures are required to sustain the multilateral trading system, and urgent action is needed to avoid a scenario where the system fragments. The worst scenarios will disrupt global trade and see a world which splinters into large trading blocs (most likely centered on China, the European Union and the United States) and where trade relations are based to a large extent on relative power instead of rules. In such a world the smallest players – especially those whose trade is least covered by bilateral or regional agreements – will be at the greatest disadvantage. All countries will incur enormous costs only to try and reinvent a system that is already in place today under the WTO.

Original languageEnglish
JournalGlobal Policy
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2020 Jan 1
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Political Science and International Relations
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
  • Law

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    Akman, M. S., Armstrong, S., Dadush, U., Gonzalez, A., Kimura, F., Nakagawa, J., Rashish, P., Tamura, A., & Primo Braga, C. A. (Accepted/In press). World Trading System under Stress: Scenarios for the Future. Global Policy. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12776