A comparison of grid-level residential electricity demand scenarios in Japan for 2050

Yoshiki Yamagata, Daisuke Murakami, Hajime Seya

研究成果: Article査読

17 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Scenarios of future population at the grid level (e.g., 1km2) is very important for various types of regional planning, including energy planning. Though the most often used method for population projection is the so-called cohort-component method, if our focus is world level, not country or finer level, we must rely on much simpler methods. In this study, we compare the performance of several typical simple population projection methods using the residential electricity demand derived from each population scenario, especially focusing on spatial patterns. We show that different projection methods may produce different spatial patterns such as "compact" or "dispersed" urban form, which is quantified using the Gini coefficient. Also, we show that the projection method for gravity-based residential electricity demand is very flexible in that it can create the most compact and the most dispersed urban form among the focused methods. Furthermore, we point out the usefulness of model ensemble in projection.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)255-262
ページ数8
ジャーナルApplied Energy
158
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2015 11月 15
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 建築および建設
  • エネルギー(全般)
  • 機械工学
  • 管理、モニタリング、政策と法律

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