Creation of future urban environmental scenarios using a geographically explicit land-use model: A case study of Tokyo

In the present study, a large-scale geographically explicit land-use model was developed for projecting the geographical distribution of urban environmental variables, such as population density and fraction of urban and green vegetation land cover, for different urban forms. These variables form key inputs for regional climate models, yet they are sometimes addressed in an ad hoc manner. This study employs a land-use equilibrium model based on urban economic theory, which endogenously projects the geographical distribution of households, residential floor space/rent and land area/rent. The model can deal with not only urban growth but also urban shrinkage, which is becoming an important issue for developed countries, including Japan, confronting population decrease. The model is calibrated for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area at the micro-district level. Using the model, this paper demonstrates an extreme urban compact city scenario for the year 2050, and it is compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario.