Estimating parameters for technology investments: An application to 3d printing

Robin Schneider, Hitoshi Hirakawa, Noboru Hosoda, Rong Jin, Junichi Imai

研究成果: Article査読

抄録

One of the major limiting factors and criticism about the real options approach is related to issues with estimating the right input values for state variables that are critical to make the right investment decisions under uncertainty. While vast research exists that applies real options valuation to technology investments, scholars often present theoretical findings based on fictional numerical applications neglecting the process of estimating the right input variables for their models. We present a simple framework to obtain these variables for technology investments by analysing publicly available data such as bibliometrics and patents related to any technology and apply it to forecast 3D printing technology diffusion. We base our approach on the Bass model, which is a prominent technique in the area of technology forecasting and show that these methods can help to forecast technology diffusion and obtain the required input parameters for technology investment decisions. We further use our 3D printing example to demonstrate the major differences between the suggested technology diffusion model and a standard Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, as it is often found in Real Options literature. We find that the GBM is often not suitable when analysing technology investments, as it can lead to wrong investment decisions.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)129-157
ページ数29
ジャーナルJournal of the Operations Research Society of Japan
64
3
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2021 7月 31

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 決定科学(全般)
  • 経営科学およびオペレーションズ リサーチ

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