Globalization and business cycle transmission

Michael Artis, Toshihiro Okubo

研究成果: Article査読

14 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison [Maddison, A. (2003). The world economy-Historical statistics. Paris: OECD Development Centre] to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave (1870-1914), the period of the "bloc economy" (1915-1959) and for the period of the second globalization (1960-2001). Cluster analysis is applied and the McNemar test is used to test for the relative coherence of alternative groupings of countries in the three periods. The bloc economy period emerges as one that features some well-defined sub-global clusters, where the second globalization period does not, the first globalization period lying between the two in this respect. The second globalization period shows a generally higher level of cross-correlations and a lower variance than the other two periods. The features uncovered suggest that the second globalization period is indeed one that comprises a more inclusive world economy than ever before.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)91-99
ページ数9
ジャーナルNorth American Journal of Economics and Finance
20
2
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2009 8
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 財務
  • 経済学、計量経済学

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