Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability

Masaya Sakuragawa, Yukie Sakuragawa

研究成果: Article査読

4 被引用数 (Scopus)


This paper reconsiders Japan's fiscal sustainability. We investigate whether a simulation conducted under the political constraint imposed by a fiscal reaction function supports the official projection. First, we obtain Japan's fiscal reaction function by estimating the response of the primary surpluses to the past debt for a panel data set of 23 OECD countries. Next, we investigate the political feasibility of the official projection using our estimated reaction function. When the Cabinet Office criterion is used for the debt-to-GDP ratio, the government can attain the policy target of nonnegative fiscal surpluses and realize fiscal sustainability. Notably, the negative growth-adjusted bond yield and the high growth rate contribute to this finding.

ジャーナルJapan and The World Economy
出版ステータスPublished - 2020 6月

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 財務
  • 経済学、計量経済学
  • 政治学と国際関係論


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