Aims/Introduction: Increased incidence of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) among patients with diabetes is increasingly being reported. We investigated the incidence of adverse cardiovascular events including HHF among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and the potential clinical improvement with sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) using a contemporary administrative claims database from a large governmental district of Japan. Materials and Methods: We included initiators of any oral glucose-lowering drugs between 2013 and 2018. We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of hospitalization for HF, myocardial infarction and stroke, treating death as a competing risk. We evaluated the possible impact of introducing SGLT2i to the potential recipients of the drug, using the inclusion criteria from Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events–Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trials, assuming the same risk reduction as theirs. Results: Among 23,340 drug initiators (54.0% men, and 6.4% aged >85 years), the 5-year cumulative incidence was 5.4% (95% confidence interval 4.9–5.9%) for HHF, 1.9% (95% confidence interval 1.7–2.2%) for myocardial infarction admission and 6.1% (95% confidence interval 5.7–6.6%) for stroke admission. Among 6,192 patients with laboratory test data, 651 (10.5%) and 2,680 (43.3%) patients met the EMPA-REG-like and DECLARE-like criteria, respectively. The 5-year cumulative incidence among the 2,849 patients meeting either of the criteria was estimated to decrease from 97.1 to 75.6 events through 75% adoption of SGLT2i. Conclusions: The incidence of HHF was similar to that of stroke. A significant portion of our cohort met the inclusion criteria for major randomized clinical trials for SGLT2i, and estimated reduction in the HHF events was substantial.
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