Learning from extreme catastrophes

Shinichi Kamiya, Noriyoshi Yanase

研究成果: Article査読

5 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

This article studies the effects of direct and indirect loss experience of extreme catastrophes on expectations concerning the likelihood of future events by investigating the earthquake insurance take-up of Japanese households after the two costliest disasters in history. Direct loss experiences caused the strongest reactions to extreme catastrophes, whereas risk belief updates were a nationwide phenomenon. Sharing personalized information contributed to strong and persistent indirect experience effects. Investigating the effect of past quake experience on reaction to a new major quake, we find that both availability bias and representativeness help explain the effect of past loss experiences. Furthermore, the gambler’s fallacy, as proposed by Tversky and Kahneman (Psychological Bulletin 76(2), 105–110, 1971), appears to play an important role after an indirect experience with a 1000-year earthquake.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)85-124
ページ数40
ジャーナルJournal of Risk and Uncertainty
59
1
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2019 8 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 会計
  • 財務
  • 経済学、計量経済学

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