Natural hazard information and migration across cities: evidence from the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

Michio Naoi, Keiichi Sato, Yozo Tanaka, Hiroaki Matsuura, Shingo Nagamatsu

研究成果: Article査読

1 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

This paper examines the effects of the 2012 revisions to the damage predictions of an anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake on subsequent inter-municipality migration in Japan’s coastal areas. We find that an increase in predicted tsunami height—rather than anticipated seismic movements—after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. While the reducing effect of tsunami predictions on in-migration persisted throughout the study period, the effect on out-migration was only temporary. Moreover, working-age people are more likely to respond to tsunami risk and avoid moving to municipalities with a high tsunami risk after the revisions.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)452-479
ページ数28
ジャーナルPopulation and Environment
41
4
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2020 6 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 人口統計学
  • 環境科学(その他)

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