Background: This study aimed to identify reduced home care use among older people and its impact on user numbers and service provider revenues during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: We conducted this secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from long-term care providers in Japan and estimated the probability of client cancellations and service contraction for institutional and home care services adjusted for the service type, area, size, infection occurrence, and staff employment impacts. We then estimated the rate of change in user numbers and revenue related to reduced usage. Results: Seventy-two percent of home care providers experienced client cancellations and 42.1% experienced service contraction, both of which were more prevalent in home care than in institutional care (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=11.09 and 1.60). Home-visit (AOR=0.70) and short-term stay (AOR=0.38) services were less likely to experience client cancellations compared with adult day services. Service contraction was less likely in home-visit services (AOR=0.60) but were more likely in short-stay services (AOR=1.49) compared to adult day services. The estimated reductions in user numbers and revenue related to service contraction for adult day services were 9.1% and 7.1%, respectively. Home-visiting services decreased by an estimated 3.4% owing to service contraction. Conclusion: The secondary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic include reduced use of home care services, especially adult day services that include social contact. These secondary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may cause functional deterioration in non-infected clients and financially impact service providers.
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