Objective: To identify risk factors of imaging progression (increase in cyst size or main pancreatic duct size, or a new mural nodule) in low-risk branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN), including obesity-related factors such as pancreatic fat content. Methods: Our hospital databases were searched for patients who had completed health checkup, including upper abdominal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) over 48 months (August 2012 to July 2016). Individuals with BD-IPMN without worrisome features and high-risk stigmata who underwent surveillance with at least one follow-up MRI, irrespective of the follow-up period, were included. Pancreatic computed tomography attenuation indexes were defined as the difference between the pancreas and spleen attenuation (P - S) and the pancreas to spleen attenuation ratio (P/S). Results: Among 75 patients diagnosed as having low-risk BD-IPMN, during a median follow-up of 36 months, 11 (15%) had imaging progression in cyst size, including two with worrisome features. A multivariate logistic analysis showed that the initial cyst size and both indexes (P - S, or P/S) were significantly associated with imaging progression in IPMN, respectively (Model 1: odds ratio [OR] 1.188, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.060-1.331, P = 0.003; OR 0.871, 95% CI 0.776-0.977, P = 0.019; Model 2: OR 1.186, 95% CI 1.064-1.322, P = 0.002; OR 0.002, 95% CI 0.000-0.970, P = 0.049). Conclusions: Pancreatic fat content and initial cyst size were significantly associated with imaging progression in low-risk BD-IPMN. Revisions of international consensus Fukuoka guidelines might be customized based on initial cyst size and pancreatic fat content.
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