Regional electricity planning support system - electricity demand modeling with assimilation of smart electricity meter data -

Hajime Seya, Yoshiki Yamagata

研究成果: Paper査読

1 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

In Japan, regional- hourly- electricity demand data per each sector (resi-dential, commercial, transport, etc) is not publicly available hence esti-mating it by bottom up approach is really important not only for electricity production and distribution companies, but also urban planners. One of the conventional methods to implement this is using the intensity method. However, the problem of this approach is in that intensity value may change drastically due to the wide diffusion of new technologies such as electric vehicles or photovoltaics. Hence the present paper proposes a sim-ple Bayesian updating method of the intensity by assimilating the infor-mation of smart meter data. Also, forecasting of the intensity is performed using several recently proposed statistical methods, and its performances are empirically compared. The results support the use of seasonal-ARIMA model, multivariate dynamic linear model, and tbats model proposed by De Livera et al. (2011).

本文言語English
ページ1-21
ページ数21
出版ステータスPublished - 2013
外部発表はい
イベント13th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, CUMPUM 2013 - Utrecht, Netherlands
継続期間: 2013 7 22013 7 5

Conference

Conference13th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, CUMPUM 2013
国/地域Netherlands
CityUtrecht
Period13/7/213/7/5

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 土木構造工学
  • 生態学
  • 環境工学
  • 地理、計画および開発
  • 都市研究

フィンガープリント

「Regional electricity planning support system - electricity demand modeling with assimilation of smart electricity meter data -」の研究トピックを掘り下げます。これらがまとまってユニークなフィンガープリントを構成します。

引用スタイル