Risk factors for heart failure and coronary heart disease mortality over 24-year follow-up period in Japan: NIPPON DATA80

Background: Although prevention of heart failure (HF) is an urgent public health need with national and global implications, population-based studies are rare. Methods and results: We studied risk factors for HF and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality using the NIPPON DATA80 database with a 24-year follow-up. At the baseline in 1980, data were collected on study participants aged 30 years and over from randomly selected areas in Japan. We followed 9300 participants (44% men, mean age 51). Over the 24-year follow-up, there were 189 deaths from HF (82 men and 107 women) and 188 (91 men and 97 women) from CHD. Cox analyses revealed common and specific risk factors for both mortalities. Common risk factors were: systolic blood pressure for male HF (hazard ratio: 1.28 per 1SD, P = 0.02) and for CHD in both (men: 1.20, P = 0.01; women: 1.27, P = 0.003), smoking for male CHD (1.31, P = 0.004) and for female HF (1.39, P = 0.01), blood sugar for HF and CHD in men (HF: 1.21 per 1SD, P = 0.009; CHD: 1.29, P < 0.0001); T wave abnormality in male HF (2.33, P = 0.003) and female CHD (1.84, P = 0.001). Specific risk factors were: serum creatinine for HF in both (men: 1.14 per 1SD, P < 0.0001, women: 1.09, P = 0.01); total cholesterol for CHD in men (1.38 per 1SD, P = 0.001), history of valvular heart disease (6.48, P = 0.002) or stroke (2.41, P = 0.048) in male HF, and history of angina in female CHD (3.59, P = 0.003). Conclusion: Common and specific measures need to be undertaken to prevent HF and CHD mortality.