The UK intranational business cycle

Michael Artis, Toshihiro Okubo

研究成果: Article査読

6 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

The paper uses annual data on real GDP for 12 UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors to derive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The cohesion of the cycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles for Japan, the USA and the euro area. The UK emerges as especially cohesive and efforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP are not very successful owing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regional cycles, with their greater variance, it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables such as distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explaining the variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations in relation to those of EU countries is that while they continue to provide support for the 'UK idiosyncrasy' they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)71-93
ページ数23
ジャーナルJournal of Forecasting
29
1-2
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2010 1
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • モデリングとシミュレーション
  • コンピュータ サイエンスの応用
  • 戦略と経営
  • 統計学、確率および不確実性
  • 経営科学およびオペレーションズ リサーチ

フィンガープリント

「The UK intranational business cycle」の研究トピックを掘り下げます。これらがまとまってユニークなフィンガープリントを構成します。

引用スタイル