TY - JOUR
T1 - Validation of the european SCORE risk chart in the healthy middle-aged Japanese
AU - Sawano, Mitsuaki
AU - Kohsaka, Shun
AU - Okamura, Tomonori
AU - Inohara, Taku
AU - Sugiyama, Daisuke
AU - Watanabe, Makoto
AU - Nakamura, Yasuyuki
AU - Higashiyama, Aya
AU - Kadota, Aya
AU - Okud, Nagako
AU - Murakami, Yoshitaka
AU - Ohkubo, Takayoshi
AU - Fujiyoshi, Akira
AU - Miura, Katsuyuki
AU - Okayama, Akira
AU - Ueshima, Hirotsugu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd
PY - 2016/9/1
Y1 - 2016/9/1
N2 - Background and aims The European Society of Cardiology developed prediction models (SCORE) for low- and high-risk populations in the European countries. However, whether or not these models are valid in different ethnicities is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the performance of the low-risk SCORE model in the general Japanese population. Methods Healthy middle-aged Japanese participating in the NIPPON DATA80 cohort had been observed. The predicted 10-year cardiovascular death risk was calculated using the low-risk SCORE model for the overall population as well as for each gender individually. The model performance of the low-risk SCORE model was evaluated with the Harrel's c-statistics for discrimination and the Grønnesby and Borgan goodness-of-fit test for calibration. Results A total of 4842 participants aged 40–64 years old and 47,606 person-years were evaluated in our study. 203 (4.19%) died within the ten-years of follow-up and 44 (0.91%) CV deaths were observed. The low-risk SCORE model in the overall population had reasonable discrimination (c statistics 0.72, 95% CI 0.71–0.73) but poor calibration (R2, 0.67, Chi-square value 6.15, p = 0.01). Discrimination was reasonable in both men (c statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.69–0.73) and women (c statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.70–0.73). However, calibration was poor in men (R2, 0.22, Chi-square value 0.749, p = 0.38) compared to women (R2, 0.96, Chi-square value 1.39, p = 0.24). Conclusions Although the low-risk SCORE model performs reasonably well in women, the SCORE models generally overestimated the risk of cardiovascular death risk in the Japanese general population.
AB - Background and aims The European Society of Cardiology developed prediction models (SCORE) for low- and high-risk populations in the European countries. However, whether or not these models are valid in different ethnicities is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the performance of the low-risk SCORE model in the general Japanese population. Methods Healthy middle-aged Japanese participating in the NIPPON DATA80 cohort had been observed. The predicted 10-year cardiovascular death risk was calculated using the low-risk SCORE model for the overall population as well as for each gender individually. The model performance of the low-risk SCORE model was evaluated with the Harrel's c-statistics for discrimination and the Grønnesby and Borgan goodness-of-fit test for calibration. Results A total of 4842 participants aged 40–64 years old and 47,606 person-years were evaluated in our study. 203 (4.19%) died within the ten-years of follow-up and 44 (0.91%) CV deaths were observed. The low-risk SCORE model in the overall population had reasonable discrimination (c statistics 0.72, 95% CI 0.71–0.73) but poor calibration (R2, 0.67, Chi-square value 6.15, p = 0.01). Discrimination was reasonable in both men (c statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.69–0.73) and women (c statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.70–0.73). However, calibration was poor in men (R2, 0.22, Chi-square value 0.749, p = 0.38) compared to women (R2, 0.96, Chi-square value 1.39, p = 0.24). Conclusions Although the low-risk SCORE model performs reasonably well in women, the SCORE models generally overestimated the risk of cardiovascular death risk in the Japanese general population.
KW - External validation
KW - General population
KW - Primary prevention
KW - Risk score
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84981284204&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84981284204&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2016.07.926
DO - 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2016.07.926
M3 - Article
C2 - 27521900
AN - SCOPUS:84981284204
VL - 252
SP - 116
EP - 121
JO - Atherosclerosis
JF - Atherosclerosis
SN - 0021-9150
ER -